By Moses Okorie
As race for Anambra 2025 governorship election gears up, opinion polls have set Rt. Hon. Chukwuma Umeoji ahead of Governor Chukwuma Soludo, Senator Tony Nwoye, Sir Paul Chukwuma, Dr. Obiora Okonkwo and Barth Nwibe.
In a press conference held by Anambra Opinion Polls (AOP), on Saturday, they said this survey was carried out using scientific polling methodologies, including structured questionnaires, face-to-face and telephone interviews, and online sampling, ensuring representation from all 21 local government areas of the state, which was held within a period of six weeks.
According to them, the findings reflect the true aspirations of Anambra people as gathered from a diverse cross-section of the population, including youths, professionals, traders, artisans, and traditional institutions.
The survey indicated that Chukwuma Umeoji scored 54.6 percent, Governor Chukwuma Soludo got 22.3 percent, Senator Tony Nwoye garnered 15.8 percent, Sir Paul Chukwuma scored 4.5 percent, Dr. Obiora Okonkwo got 2.1 percent, while Barth Nwibe scored 0.7 percent.
The groups said Umeoji, clear frontrunner, received majority support across different demographics due to his perceived competence, grassroots appeal, and commitment to infrastructural development and social welfare.
They said incumbent governor, who retains significant support, but faces challenges due to governance concerns, policy controversies, and shifting voter sentiments.
“Rt. Hon. Chukwuma Umeoji’s dominance in this poll is attributed to his grassroots connection, strategic political positioning, and reputation for pragmatic leadership.
“His extensive political career, including his tenure in the National Assembly, has earned him credibility among different voter demographics. His key support base includes traders, the youth, and local political structures that view him as a candidate capable of driving economic transformation in Anambra.
“His acceptance is further reinforced by his focus on people-oriented policies, particularly in areas of security, infrastructure, and job creation. His overwhelming lead in this poll suggests that, if elections were held today, he would likely emerge victorious”, the groups said.
AOP added that Governor Soludo, despite being the incumbent, has seen a decline in public approval. While his administration has implemented reforms, issues such as economic hardship, policy dissatisfaction, and governance concerns have affected his re-election chances.
“His support base remains relatively strong among technocrats, elites, and civil service personnel, but he is struggling to maintain a firm grip on the grassroots. Many respondents in this poll expressed concerns about the impact of his economic policies on small businesses and traders, which
“Senator Tony Nwoye, a former student activist and a politician with a history of strong grassroots mobilization, has a formidable youth support base. His experience in the Senate and previous gubernatorial runs have earned him recognition, particularly among students, young professionals, and those seeking an alternative leadership option.
“However, his campaign faces challenges in expanding beyond his core support base, as he has not fully consolidated the broader political structures required for victory. His growing numbers in this poll indicate potential for an upset if he intensifies his outreach efforts.
“Sir Paul Chukwuma having served a National Auditor in the main opposition party in the state is still an emerging political figure with strong ties to political stakeholders in the opposition. His candidacy is gradually gaining momentum within elite circles and business communities, but he remains relatively unknown at the grassroots level.
“His lack of strong political structures has limited his ability to challenge the top contenders. However, his performance in this poll suggests that, with increased visibility and a well-structured campaign, he could become a more formidable force in the future.
“Dr. Obiora Okonkwo is widely recognized for his intellectual contributions, business acumen, and economic policies. His expertise in the private sector has earned him respect among entrepreneurs, professionals, and the academic community.
“However, his political base remains weak, as he lacks a robust grassroots network and deep party structures to translate his goodwill into electoral success. His poor performance in this poll reflects the reality that acceptability alone is not enough without a strong political machinery.
“Barth Nwibe is a respected technocrat with a track record in the engineering and business sectors. However, his low visibility and minimal political structure have made it difficult for him to gain traction among voters. His poll numbers indicate that while he is respected, he lacks the political influence needed to be a major contender in this election”, the release read.
“We urge all political stakeholders to recognize the credibility and neutrality of this poll as a reflection of the people’s will. We call on candidates to engage in issue-based campaigns and on the electorate to actively participate in shaping the future of Anambra State through their votes.
“We remain committed to fostering transparency, democracy, and voter education, and we will continue to monitor political trends leading up to the elections.
The press conference was jointly held by Tabuko Kennedy, Director General, Nigeria Democratic Research Institute (NDRI); Prof. Chika Udeh, Executive Director, Anambra Policy and Governance Research Institute (APGRI); Dr. Olufemi Adebayo, Lead Researcher, African Centre for Political and Electoral Studies (ACPES), as well as Mr. Gregory Nwankwo, National Coordinator, Global Opinion Polling Network (GOPN).
Others are Mrs. Aisha Lawal, Head of Research, Independent Survey Group of Nigeria (ISGN); Dr. Josephine Mensah, Regional Director, West African Electoral Research Council (WAERC); Mr. Ifeanyi Ezeobi, Convener, South-East Voters Awareness Initiative (SEVAI); Barr. Patrick Nnamdi, Project Director, People’s Mandate Survey Initiative (PMSI); Dr. Collins Agbasi, Head of Polling, International Political Polling Observatory (IPPO); Mr. Samuel Adekunle, Chief Analyst, The National Public Opinion Research Forum (NPORF); Mrs. Beatrice Okon, Research Lead, Africa Independent Media Polling Unit (AIMPU), and Dr. Richard Obi, Senior Fellow, Global Democracy Insights Group (GDIG).